Film Can Make Money

There is a fallacy in supply and demand theory that all remotely relevant supply will equally fulfill a particular demand.

While the idea seems reasonable, it's not accurate.
Let's take an example from film. This could apply to visual arts, music, or any business. It's just easy to find the numbers on film, see what goes on in the making of the product, and theorize about what led to a particular success or failure.

There's an argument that so many movies come out each year that any particular movie has (statistically) a less-than-0.7% chance of being a box office success (the math usually checks out).

Deadpool was considered a box-office success. It made $783.1M on its $58M budget.

In Hollywood, making 2-4 times your budget is considered a success.

Deadpool made more than 13 times its budget.

It was a passion project from a 1st-time director.

Now, that doesn't mean that passion projects will succeed or that movies have a better chance of succeeding than we expect. It means that Deadpool did something right.

Some studios think its hard-R rating, excessive humor, or novelty led to its success, and while studios are testing those hypotheses, I'd like to present my own: Deadpool had 3 advantages that any piece of art could have: It was good, it filled a demand others couldn't fill, and that demand was very strong.

We sometimes think "With all the movies out there, mine must not stand a chance", but that's assuming all movies will fulfill the demand for "a movie".

The demand isn't actually for "a movie", because there is no market for a mediocre product or for a truly awful product.

There is a market for entertainment that's "so bad it's good", and there is a market for a quality product.

You might find it useful to change the question to "Compared to the good movies in the industry, does mine stand a chance? Or does mine fall in the category of "mediocre" or "truly awful"?" (please, don't be biased on this one. Your career is at stake).

If your film falls into the category of "good" or "so bad, it's good" rather than the category of "films", you probably just AT LEAST doubled your chances.

If your film falls into the category of "mediocre" or "truly awful", that film won't have a market.

But Deadpool wasn't just good. Deadpool touched a unique niche market.

Here's where any industry can benefit. The fallacy is that the demand for a movie can be satisfied with any movie, but the demand isn't for "a movie".

Doctor Strange does not fill the demand for a horror movie, but it does fulfill the demand for a well-made superhero movie with comedy and Benedict Cumberbatch.

Batman v Superman does not fill the demand for a comedy, but it does fill the demand for a dark and gritty superhero movie.

After 15 years of superhero movie blockbusters and after 8 years of having Lame Deadpool onscreen, the Deadpool fans had developed a demand for Real Deadpool. Literally no other movie could fulfill this demand.

So find a need, fill the need.

Deadpool not only filled a unique need, but a STRONG need.

Deadpool fans wanted Real Deadpool onscreen so badly that they were probably willing to personally crowdfund the entire $58M budget if necessary. And while there were ~150 films that year, only 1 of them could fulfill the very strong need for Real Deadpool.

I'm not talking about hotly anticipated movies like Psych: The Movie, Star Wars: Episode IX, or Avengers: Infinity War. People really want those movies to come out, but they expect those movies.

I'm talking about movies that people want so badly that they will pay 2-5 times the normal amount to see this movie, because the need HASN'T been filled and it's possible that the need might never get filled. It doesn't have to fill a financial need, just an emotional need.

I guarantee you the Community movie will do very well at the box office, simply because the fans have such a strong emotional need for the film that they will go see it several times and they will try to convince their friends to go see it, too.

So find a need, fill a need. The stronger the need, the greater the profit.

So yes, there are a lot of movies released every year.

There are a lot of pieces of visual art released every year.

There's a lot of music released every year.

There are a lot of businesses launched every year. 

here are a lot of apps released every year.

But how many of them are high-quality?

And how many of them reach a market that the others can't fill?

And how many of them reach a market that's hungry for a specific product?
And is yours one of the products that's high-quality and fills a demand that the market is hungry for and that others can't fill?

If so, you go from a market with too much competition to a market with no competition.

Find a need, fill a need. The stronger the need, the greater the profit.